Looking out at those gathered for a weekend worship service, around half of pastors say their congregations have grown.
Slightly more than half of U.S. Protestant pastors (54%) report the average worship service attendance at their church has increased by at least 4% since 2023, according to a Lifeway Research study sponsored by the Wheaton College Billy Graham Center.
Another 30% say their congregation has plateaued, staying within plus or minus 4% in the past two years, while 16% report an attendance decline of at least 4%. The average pastor reported 16% growth since 2023.
Specifically, the average Protestant pastor said their church had 176 attendees on a typical weekend in the fall of 2023. By the fall of 2025, pastors said their average attendance was 183. The median attendance number increased from 90 to 100 in the past two years.
Currently, 22% of churches have fewer than 50 in attendance on a typical weekend, 27% report between 50 and 99, 32% say they have 100 to 249 and 18% average 250 or more. In 2023, 22% of pastors said they led congregations of fewer than 50, 32% saw between 50 and 99, 30% had 100 to 249 in attendance and 16% regularly preached to 250 or more.
“Given the trajectory of many churches before COVID, we expected to see more pastors reporting declines in attendance,” said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research. “However, we continue to see a majority of pastors saying their attendance is higher than two years ago.”
Often, the larger churches are growing larger. Congregations of 250 or more (70%) and those between 100 and 249 (64%) are the most likely to be growing. The smallest churches, those with fewer than 50 in attendance, are the most likely to be plateaued (43%). Additionally, those smallest congregations (25%) and those averaging 50 to 99 attendees (22%) are the most likely to be in decline.
Specific denominations are also more likely to include growing congregations. Pentecostal (63%), Baptist (57%) and nondenominational pastors (57%) are among the most likely to have grown by 4% or more. Lutherans (37%) are among the most likely to have plateaued, while Methodists (26%) are among the most likely to have declined by 4% or more.
Young adults
The presence of young adults is often an indicator of growth. The average U.S. Protestant pastor says attendees ages 18 to 30 make up 17% of their congregation, similar to their percentage of the U.S. population as a whole.
While 1 in 5 churches (19%) say more than 25% of their congregation are young adults, more than a quarter (27%) say those 18 to 30 comprise 5% or less of those attending their worship services.
“The story of young adults in churches varies greatly depending on the church. The experience of more than a quarter of today’s churches is a percentage well under the national average, while other churches have an abundance of young people,” said McConnell.
Pastors at churches of fewer than 50 are the most likely to say their congregation is made up of 5% or less of young adults (51%), while those leading churches of 250 or more are the most likely to say young adults make up more than 25% of their congregation (38%).
Evangelical pastors are more likely than mainline clergy to say their church is more than 25% young adult (23% v. 15%), while mainline pastors are more likely to say their congregation is 5% or less young adults (35% v. 21%).
New commitments
Pastors say they are reaching new people and keeping most as active members of their congregations.
The average U.S. Protestant pastor says their church saw 18 people indicate a new commitment to Jesus Christ as Savior through their church in the past 12 months. The median church noted six commitments. The numbers are similar to a 2016 study. However, slightly more churches are reporting no new commitments in the past year (9% in 2025 v. 6% in 2016).
When evaluating new commitments per 100 attendees, churches have become less effective than a decade ago. In 2016, the average church saw 16 commitments per 100 worship service attendees. By 2025, that number fell to 11 commitments per 100 attendees.
Mainline pastors are twice as likely as evangelical pastors to have seen no new commitments in the past 12 months (12% v. 6%). Almost a quarter of churches with fewer than 50 in attendance (23%) also report no new commitments.
“More people are attending worship services because people in the congregation attend more often. While attendance is rising, the portion of attendees who are new converts or previously unchurched has declined,” said McConnell.
The average U.S. Protestant church retained 81% of their new commitments within the past year. Almost 3 in 5 churches (57%) said all of those who made a commitment have also become active in the life of their church. The retention rate is unchanged from 2016.
New attendees
Pastors estimate most of their new attendees over the past two years have come from other churches. In the average church, 20% of those new to that church are people who did not previously attend church at all.
Around 1 in 6 (16%) say half or more of their new attendees are completely new to church, while 12% of pastors say none of those who started attending their church in the past two years did not previously go to church.
The share of new attendees who are completely new to church has decreased over the past decade. In 2016, the average pastor said 27% of their new attendees did not go to church before, compared to 20% today. Currently, new churchgoers are less likely than in 2016 to include more than 10% of people who previously did not attend church (44% v. 63%).
“This data does not automatically mean the gospel is being shared less than it was a decade ago, but it does show fewer people are responding to the gospel message in the United States,” said McConnell. “This sad reality should motivate churches to pray for the salvation of those in their communities and to redouble efforts to equip and mobilize their congregations to share the good news of Jesus Christ.”
Pastors at the smallest congregations are the most likely to say none of their new attendees were unchurched (29%). Mainline pastors are more likely than their evangelical counterparts to also report no new attendees who are new to church (16% v. 10%).
Pulpit and pew outreach
Most pastors are trying to reach those outside their church, and from what they hear, so are their church members.
Almost 9 in 10 Protestant pastors (88%) say they intentionally spend time building friendships with non-Christians for the purpose of sharing Christ with them, while 11% disagree and 1% aren’t sure.
While overall percentages are similar to 2016, pastors seem less confident in their evangelistic purposes. Today, 53% strongly agree they are purposely forming these friendships, down from 63% a decade ago.
Evangelical pastors are more likely than mainline clergy to be intentionally building those relationships (94% v. 85%).
“Pastors are modeling sharing the gospel within relationships, but more are admitting they are not putting in all the time and effort this really requires,” said McConnell. “Starting new friendships is not easy, and some end for reasons outside our control. It is encouraging that pastors are hearing examples of their congregations sharing their faith, but most desire for these stories to multiply.”
Four in 5 pastors (80%) say they consistently hear that members of their congregation are engaging in evangelistic conversations. Around 1 in 5 (19%) disagree, and 1% aren’t sure. Those percentages are similar to 2016.
Evangelical pastors are more likely than mainline clergy to hear of their congregations’ evangelistic fervor (86% v. 73%).
For more information, view the complete report.
