The average Southern Baptist church is likely an older, small Southern church. If you want to find a growing congregation, however, you might need to look for a new, larger church — or even one in the Northeast.
Recent Lifeway Research analysis of the 2024 Annual Church Profile reveals a membership decline among existing Southern Baptist churches across every region of the United States, and a convention comprised of a growing percentage of the smallest churches. The statistical analysis also reveals, however, certain types of congregations that were more likely to be growing.
“The five-year span in this analysis compares the most recent Annual Church Profile to the last statistics reported before COVID,” said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research. “Denominational totals have also been impacted by non-reporting churches, new churches started during these years, and churches that closed or disaffiliated. But this analysis allows us to see changes within this set of churches that reported both years.”
Five-year trends
Comparing ACP data from 2019 and 2024 indicates which Southern Baptist churches are growing, plateaued or declining. A church is considered growing if their total membership increased by 10% or more in the five-year period. They are labeled declining if their membership decreased by 10% or more and plateaued if their membership was within 10% of 2019. Overall, 21% of Southern Baptist churches are growing, 39% are plateaued, and 40% are declining.
In terms of attendance, larger churches are most likely to have gotten larger, while small churches continue to shrink. Southern Baptist congregations with 500 or more in worship attendance are the most likely to have grown (29%) and the least likely to have declined (35%) since 2019.
Churches with an average of fewer than 50 in attendance are the most likely to have declined in membership (42%), while those averaging between 50 and 99 are the most likely to be plateaued (41%).
In terms of church age, the only group of churches that demonstrated overall membership growth in the past five years is the group of churches founded since 2000. They grew by 12%. Membership among congregations founded from 1950-1999 (-11%), 1900-1949 (-13%) and pre-1900 (-11%) all saw declines.
This concentration of membership growth among newer churches is also noticeable when looking at the percentage of churches that have experienced growth in the past five years. Churches founded this century are more than twice as likely to be growing compared to the other founding time frames. Almost half (46%) of newer churches have grown more than 10% since 2019. A much smaller percentage of congregations started from 1950-1999 (21%), 1900-1949 (16%) and pre-1900 (15%) are growing.
Southern Baptist churches founded between 1950 and 1999 are the most likely to be declining by more than 10% since 2019 (45%). Those founded before 1900 are the most likely to be plateaued, within plus or minus 10% of their 2019 membership (47%).
EDITOR’S NOTE — This story was written by Aaron Earls and originally published by Lifeway.
